One more head fake and even Emily might have grown tired of the game. Her fellow Democrats can themselves take only a few more feints, winks and cute equivocations before they look past her grandfather and kiss some other bullfrog. Many New Yorkers are already unimpressed by Cuomo’s modest record as governor. Faced with two of the weakest opponents in modern history, he managed only 53 percent of the vote last week in winning his third term. Meanwhile, across the river in New Jersey, heavily favored Sen. Bill Bradley almost lost to an unknown opponent. If the Democratic Party’s best-loved politicians have trouble whipping None of the Above at home in 1990, how would they fare on the road in 1992?
All the same, Cuomo remains the darling of the pundit class. The latest guess is that the $5 million left over from his gubernatorial war chest is evidence that he’s running. This, of course assumes another bit of conventional thinking–that big money is essential. In 1990, anyway, that wasn’t always the case. Bradley’s opponent, Christine Whitman’ was outspent 12 to 1. Ann Richards in Texas and Law:on Chiles in Florida lost the fund-raising race but won anyway. Beyond a certain level necessary for maintaining a presence on the air, money is mostly a way for reporters and other insiders to keep score.
Political predictions always look foolish. After the 1986 midterm elections, for instance, NEWSWEEK profiled seven Democrats with a chance of winning the 1988 nomination–none of them named Michael Dukakis. This year it’s even harder; no one is yet out in Iowa, Jimmy Carter style. Perhaps Richard Gephardt’s failed attempt at the Carter strategy in 1988 (he won Iowa and little else) is discouraging imitators.
If so, the politicians are fighting the last war. It’s always senseless to sell long shots short, but besides Nebraska Gov. Bob Kerrey, that’s exactly what’s happening. Names like Florida Sen. Bob Graham and Colorado Sen. Tim Wirth haven’t even been floated, and it’s not so early anymore. Of course with so much of the pent-up demand for reform thwarted this year, 1992 could be the year when a real outsider storms the barricades. Who? Think Colin Powell (who won’t reveal his party ID) Ralph Nader, Ted Turner, ex-drug-czar William Bennett (yes, a Democrat). If they’re unbearable, think some more.
WHERE IS MR. SMITH NOW THAT WE NEED HIM? was the cover line over an old Jimmy Stewart movie photograph last week in the Los Angeles Times Magazine. The answer this year, was in Minnesota, which elected an obscure political-science professor as senator and a candidate who had only been on the ballot for a week as governor. Minnesota, racked by a season of political weirdness, is a special case, the experts say. By 1992, the United States may be a special weird case, too. Sometimes, we kiss strangers.
