This isn’t to say Dole’s demise was a done deal. The economy was strong in ‘94, too, and the Democrats were pounded. Nothing is preordained in politics. But victory demands a strategy, and strategy demands a willingness to stick with a theme even when it doesn’t seem to be working. George Bush’s strategy in 1988 was: continue Reagan, destroy Dukakis. Bill Clinton’s in 1992 was: it’s the economy, stupid. In 1996 Clinton has gone with Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment (known as MMEE in the White House) and that tiresome but sturdy bridge he keeps selling. What is Dole’s message? One day it’s the 15 percent tax cut, the next it’s Clinton’s character, then it’s back to ““he’s a liberal’’ or ““who do you trust?’’ or ““it’s your money’’ or ““rise up against the press’’ or–in the word that most characterizes Bob Dole’s campaign and mind-set this year–““whatever’’ might play.

““There never was a strategy,’’ says Don Sipple, the chief Dole ““strategist’’ who was dismissed in September and is speaking out for the first time. ““Essentially Dole is running his own campaign.’’ Sipple, who helped elect the governors of California, Texas and Illinois in 1994, tells of visiting Dole in late June on the roof of the campaign building, where the candidate was sunning himself. Sipple had put what he thought should be the rationale of the campaign on one simple page. Designed to play to Dole’s strengths, the theme was moral decline, as reflected in drug use, teen crime, welfare, illegal immigration. If Dole had another idea in mind, that was fine by Sipple, but the hour was drawing late. ““I took the opportunity to ask Dole, “What is your theory of this election?’ His answer was astounding: “Think I’ll win. Could be big.’ I said, “No, what is your theory?’ He never picked up the baton.’'

Later, Sipple, whose views are like those of many Republican operatives without the cojones to speak publicly, interviewed the candidate for five hours to prepare the film shown at the San Diego convention. ““This is a very good, very decent man. Noble. But my inescapable conclusion is that his clock stopped in the late 1950s or early 1960s. He is a man not of this time. I’m saddened by what this [loss] will do to him. I believe he will be bitter. He thought the presidency was a reward system and he was next in line for the ring.’’ Here Sipple pauses. ““I don’t think he [Dole] would be a particularly good president. There’s the lack of communications skills, the indecisiveness, the obsession with self-reliance.''

But isn’t Dole’s famous self-reliance a good trait? Apparently not, if it makes him surround himself with weak advisers. ““These people were totally intimidated by Dole,’’ Sipple remembers. ““Scott Reed [the campaign manager] acted like a little boy in front of Dole, then he’d come out and act like John Wayne. It was an Eddie Haskell thing.’’ Sipple has a bias; he was fired by Reed. But his sentiments are widely shared. Another major GOP operative told me that by last week Reed was ““shellshocked.’’ Though Reed is still running the campaign, so to speak, pollster Tony Fabrizio, who has never even run a statewide contest, is making the decisions on Dole’s message. ““This is like you’re driving your kid to camp, fall asleep and wake up to find the kid is driving the car,’’ says the operative. And of course Reed’s trip to Dallas to convince Ross Perot to drop out was one of the great fool’s errands of recent political history. While Reed may have forgotten that he literally turned his back on Perot’s representatives in the debate negotiations in September, Perot almost certainly has not. It has come to this: Perot is calling Dole’s campaign ““weird.''

But all these atmospherics are what Perot used to call ““Mickey Mouse salad.’’ The real problem is a Republican Party still living in the Bush-Dole era. ““I don’t think our party has come to terms with the ’90s, as opposed to the ’80s or ’70s,’’ says Sipple. ““We’re still trying to make it an ideological contest and it doesn’t work.’’ Dole is proving it by once again attacking the ““liberal’’ media. This is a hardy conservative perennial that can rev up the faithful (Dole’s endgame is to return to his roots as a party man and save some seats) but there’s zero history of it winning any new votes. Besides, whatever the sins of the press–and there are many–it can hardly be accused of being uniformly anti-Dole. After all, it is Dole’s questionable connections–his former campaign finance vice-chair was sentenced last week for laundering contributions–that have been underplayed in the press, largely because Dole has been so far behind.

Bob Dole could have gone out on a classy note, challenging Clinton to means-test entitlements (stop sending fat government checks to people who don’t need them), thereby helping save the country from cruel choices and bankruptcy. That would have been the responsible Senator Dole who was so admired by his colleagues and, not incidentally, by the press. Instead, he appears to be exiting stage right, wearing the same scowl he brought to national politics a quarter century ago, moving the voters from respectful sympathy toward indifferent pity.