The display of braggadocio was eerily familiar. It recalled the November 1965 coup that brought Mobutu to power, the Shaba massacres of 1977 and 1978, the September 1991 riots by unpaid army troops and the first dismissal of Tshisekedi in October 1991-all pretexts to tighten Mobutu’s hold on a country he has bludgeoned and bankrupted. It was also a reminder that while strongmen have fallen in Zambia, Ethiopia and Somalia, democracy still has a long, hard journey in states like Zaire.

Mobutu provoked the latest violence in Kinshasa. Over Tshisekedi’s objections, he insisted on paying rank-and-file soldiers with newly printed 5 million zaire bank notes (value: less than $2). When a merchant refused to honor the worthless notes, a paratrooper opened fire. Other soldiers joined in, looting shops and embassy residences and killing the French ambassador. “When they finished taking everything, they threw tear gas into the premises, which nearly suffocated our children,” says an African diplomat who sought refuge in Brazzaville, Congo. To “restore order,” Mobutu dispatched his 15,000-man to find Tshisekedi, who was in hiding. They managed to gun down the son of opposition leader Frederic Kibasa Maliba and to sack the home of Foreign Minister Pierre Lumbi. But most victims were military. The morgue at the Mama Yemo hospital, named after Mobutu’s mother, held more than a hundred decomposing corpses, many of them still dressed in army uniforms. Hospital officials say dozens of bodies that had been lying in Kinshasa’s streets were dumped in the Zaire River.

The infamous bank notes have further damaged an economy already in shambles. Since the 1991 disturbances, exports have dropped 40 percent; inflation is running at 100 percent a month. Hardest hit has been the diamond trade. Diamond exporters, who normally buy local currency at the Central Bank to purchase the gems, can’t persuade producers to accept the 5 million zaire notes. As a result, no hard currency is coming into the country-virtually paralyzing industries like textiles and breweries, which can’t import vital raw materials. Zaire is used to privation. Over the years, Mobutu has used the nation’s treasury as a private checkbook, diverting hundreds of millions of dollars for his own use and skimming millions from state-owned copper, cobalt and diamond mines. His multiple estates in Europe and Africa, as well as his Swiss bank accounts, suggest the careful deliberations of a man with an exit plan.

But Mobutu isn’t about to leave–except on his own terms. Those include guarantees of his safety and his fortune abroad. While his former patrons have promised nothing, Mobutu still has the upper hand. Even as Belgium blocked a huge shipment of the 5 million zaire bank notes, local vendors and stores began accepting the bills. At this point, outside military intervention is about as likely as Mobutu holding the free and open election he pledged nearly three years ago. Change, when and if it comes to Zaire, will arise from opposition leaders within the country. History suggests the transfer of power may not be peaceful.