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According to 10,000 AccuScore game simulations, Boise St. wins this matchup over 63 percent of time, while Vegas odds suggest a 59 percent chance. The average score is 30-24. AccuScore also offers a hot trend pick against the spread .
AccuScore would list Boise State’s money-line odds at -175. Going back to the end of last season, Boise State is 4-1 straight up in its last five games on the road. Despite this just being a Week-4 matchup, it’s very close to a must-win for Virginia. A loss tonight would put the Cavaliers at 1-3 entering ACC play. It’s a huge opportunity, though, with the Broncos missing starting sophomore quarterback Ryan Finley to an ankle injury. Finley’s replacement Thomas Stuart, a running threat, is projected to finish with 253 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 135.0.
The posted total in Vegas is 49, and with the number set at 52 points by the simulations, the OVER also presents a nice wagering opportunity .
AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the college football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
More college football selections: The Linemakers’ Saturday plays | Andrews’ upset picks
Visit AccuScore for more betting analysis and picks .
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