The list of his perversities grows day by day. He has resuscitated the cold war with China and Russia. He torpedoed reconciliation of the two Koreas, canceling talks with the North during the visit of Kim Dae Jung, the president of the South. And he escalated the sale of arms to Taiwan. But Bush’s gravest decision has been denouncing the Kyoto Treaty against the emission of gases that are deadly to life on the planet. The greenhouse effect hardly matters to Bush. The important thing is that the United States continues using (and squandering) half the energy resources of the planet. Frighteningly, but perhaps unrealistically, he wants to make Latin America the centerpiece of his foreign policy.
We choose our friends, but not our neighbors. Bound by geographic fatality, Latin America must deal with whoever occupies the Oval Office. Our sights should be set on long-range perspectives: negotiating with the “gringos,” diversifying our global interests and unifying our goals. The obstacles are many. U.S. trade barriers: textile and steel will fight lifting quotas. Drug demands: authorities will not fight U.S. drug consumption or sufficiently. And migration laws: innate discrimination against migrant labor will not vanish overnight. The Bush-Fox meeting set two issues on a better course: drugs were seen as a shared problem and labor migration an opportunity. But even then, Bush had the perversity to bomb Iraq the day of his visit, without telling his hosts.
Bush’s proposal to create a free-trade area of the Americas is problematic. Excepting NAFTA, which has fueled a boom in U.S.-Mexico trade, U.S. trade and investment in Latin America is less than 10 percent of the U.S. worldwide total. An expanded free-trade zone faces many hurdles. It can be overtaken by global negotiations in the WTO. It can flounder in protectionist resistance in the U.S. Congress. It will meet with continuing opposition from Latin American exporters who cannot tolerate U.S. discriminatory anti-dumping practices in agriculture, steel and other processed items. Most probably, free trade in the Americas will come down to bilateral and multilateral deals between the U.S. and selected partners.
Fortunately, Mr. Bush has his limits. The U.S. Senate is divided 50-50. Many reactionary initiatives of Bush will find severe opposition in Congress and public opinion. I don’t believe in four years North American voters, who in the popular vote elected Al Gore in November, will permit the re-election of George W. Bush, chosen by five judges of the Supreme Court. But even dealing with a possible lame-duck presidency, Latin America will be dealing with a nation that is a roaring lion.
