This shift reflects a behind-the-scenes debate over bomb-damage assessments, or BDAs. BDAs are primarily based on the interpretation of photographs, such as the one on this page, taken by spy satellites or reconnaissance aircraft. The photos show Iraqi tanks, bunkers, troop formations and other military equipment before and after allied bombing raids. By looking for explosions, craters and other signs of damage, a skilled interpreter can make an educated guess about the losses inflicted on an Iraqi unit - from which its combat effectiveness can be estimated. While BDAs are routinely conducted after any allied strike, Bush and his advisers are intensely concerned about those depicting the condition of the eight Republican Guard divisions in Iraq and Kuwait (map, page 30). The Guard is by far the most capable force in the Iraqi Army, and it is the cornerstone of Saddam Hussein’s defense of Kuwait.
Allied planes have already targeted the Republican Guard’s bunkers and staging areas many times, and the bombing campaign against those hardened targets is apparently being stepped up. But U.S. officials say there are sharply differing BDAs from different analysts in the intelligence community - among the military’s own photo interpreters, both in Washington and in Saudi Arabia, and from analysts in agencies like the CIA. The most pessimistic estimate, according to NEWSWEEK sources, holds that the Republican Guard’s combat effectiveness has been “degraded” by only about 5 percent - which means that the Guard, sheltered by elaborate bunkers and fortifications, is unquestionably capable of ferocious resistance if and when the ground war begins. The most optimistic estimate, on the other hand, holds that the combination of casualties and equipment losses has cost the Guard up to about 25 percent of its former combat effectiveness.
But the 25 percent estimate is still well below the expectations of allied strategists. U.S. Air Force planners predicted that bombing would reduce the Republican Guard’s combat effectiveness by 50 percent. Achieving that goal was planned as an essential preliminary to any ground attack. American military briefers, who have been telling the press and public that the air war is going well, have offered two explanations for the lag in the air campaign’s schedule. One is the weather, which obscured vital targets inside Iraq during the first days of the war. The other is the hunt for Scud missiles, which diverted allied planes from previously assigned targets. A third explanation surfaced last week: the Republican Guard, it appears, did a much better job of concealing, sheltering and dispersing its men and equipment than U.S. planners had thought. Indeed, its radio communications both within the ranks and with Baghdad still exhibit unbroken military discipline.
The BDA debate is partly a result of the Iraqi success in building a mammoth system of fortifications in the desert. All told, the eight Guard divisions total some 150,000 troops, together with their tanks and artillery, scattered over an area roughly the size of Rhode Island. What has stunned allied planners is the number of decoys: there are hundreds and perhaps thousands of dummy tanks, as well as dummy trucks, dummy bunkers and empty foxholes. Bombing them all, including the decoys, is arguably impossible within any reasonable time frame for Operation Desert Storm. There is also plenty of room for doubt about the results of allied bombing on genuine targets. According to one administration official, intelligence analysts are arguing about the effectiveness of U.S. cluster bombs. Although aerial photos show many Iraqi tanks have been damaged by cluster bombs, some analysts believe the damaged tanks are still operable, while others score them as “kills.” “There is an inevitable range of uncertainty because there are some things you can’t know from photography,” a senior U.S. intelligence official concedes.
All this is why, last week, Cheney and Gen. Colin Powell, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, flew to Saudi Arabia for a talk with Desert Storm Commander Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf. As one administration official put it, Cheney and Powell were to “get past the pictures” and find out what Schwarzkopf and his staff “really think” about the Iraqi Army’s capacity to fight. Administration sources said their verdict will be a critical factor in Bush’s decision on ground strategy.
Officials said Cheney and Powell will probably return from Saudi Arabia with several options for the president. These options, they said, will reflect the military’s judgment about the level of U.S. casualties that would be likely if an all-out ground war begins sooner rather than later. By allowing time for more bombing, even a week’s delay in launching a major ground campaign could help to reduce casualties. On the other hand, this official said, waiting longer would probably cut the casualty total only marginally - with the implication that Bush, despite pressure from some in Congress to delay the ground war, is unlikely to wait. “It’s going to take a bit more time than we planned to make sure we get the job done,” a senior administration official said. “We’re talking about a small setback, a week or so - and at no cost to the allies.”
That view may be too optimistic. One Pentagon source said the dispute over bomb-damage assessments can be resolved only by confronting the Republican Guard on the ground. “If we let [allied planes] go on bombing for another month, they still won’t be able to tell us how well they’re doing,” this source said. As a result, Cheney, Powell, Schwarzkopf and the allied command may recommend a limited ground action inside Iraq to precede the all-out ground campaign. An amphibious attack into Kuwait also was possible, though three Iraqi divisions stand between the Guard and any allied beachhead. “We have to flush out the Guard,” this source said. “At this point, we’re running out of options.” Other sources said the real reason the British and French defense ministers are coming to Washington this week is to participate in the final planning for this offensive. Some allied cooperation is already well advanced: in the last month, three French regiments (including two from the Foreign Legion) have been training intensively with the U.S. 101st Airborne and 1st Cavalry divisions.
Just how and where the allies would strike very much remained to be seen, of course. But the inescapable conclusion was that George Bush was on the verge of making the most momentous decision he has made as commander in chief: the decision to send thousands of young Americans against a wily, well-prepared enemy. It may turn out the Republican Guard is less formidable than feared. But maybe not - and what was daunting, last week, was that the allies could not know for sure.
In a steady run of bombing raids, allied planes have battered away at a key Republican Guard assembly area near the Iraq-Kuwait border. This aerial photograph, taken after a sortie by French Jaguars and Mirage F-1s last month, shows that a number of hits have been made. It illustrates the difficulty in assessing the actual damage.
To protect their tanks, the Iraqis have built a network of berms - 12-foot walls of sand.
Tanks are buried in the sand; the turrets, protected by sandbags, remain aboveground.
A smoke ring around an apparent crater probably signifies an internal explosion - a hit.
Small smoke spots are hard to assess. A partial hit? Or a burning oil drum lit as a decoy?
Black cloud appears to be from an earlier raid, perhaps on an ammunition dump.
Vertical enclaves protect other vehicles, perhaps tank transports and fuel tankers.
Billowing smoke that obscures the target area is from a fresh hit of cluster bombs.
Trucks, more vulnerable to bomb blasts, are buried in tight, irregular enclaves.
*** THE GULF WAR: WEEK FOUR
The U.S. and its allies stepped up the bombardment of Iraq and Kuwait as a debate broke out over the effectiveness of the air war. Border skirmishes continued and allied leaders said a massive ground campaign is unavoidable.
Retired U.S. sergeant, killed in Adana, Turkey
Three Scuds strike central Israel and West Bank; 26 injured
Jordan aligns itself more closely with Iraq and protests allied attacks on road to Amman
Patriots down Scud aimed at Riyadh
Battleships Missouri and Wisconsin fire 16-inch guns on Iraqi artillery positions
Four Iraqi jets shot down fleeing to Iran; at least 147 have safely made it through
Bombing of Baghdad continues: Iraq claims civilian casualties mount; U.S. says antiaircraft guns moved to residential areas
British claim to damage half the bridges along main supply routes
U.S. steps up B-52 bombing raids on entrenched Republican Guard
B-52 with crew of six crashes into Indian Ocean; three saved
*** WHEN TO ATTACK?
High tides and low moonlight are best for amphibious landings. The most favorable days this month are when the two coincide, Feb. 15 to 18.
