The Soviet plan agreed to by Iraq last week met many of Washington’s prewar objectives. But the intense emotions and military revelations that come with war can themselves create new war aims. The gulf war has proven no exception. Outraged at the brutality of Iraqi troops in Kuwait and astonished at the true scope of Iraq’s military capacity, George Bush now won’t settle for less than Saddam’s down fall. Leaders of the allied countries agree, in spades: the official Syrian newspaper Al-Thawra said, “The Iraqi Army and the Iraqi people must liquidate [Saddam] in cold blood.” The Saudis, said an Egyptian official, “want Saddam’s head on a plate.” They may yet get it: U.S. intelligence sources told NEWSWEEK of Kuwaiti reports that Saddam recently had six top Army officers killed for alleged cowardice or disloyalty. “When you start executing division commanders,” said a source, “it’s not a good sign for your Army.”
The coalition has determined that any form of survival after a monthlong showdown with a superpower would permit Saddam to portray himself as a hero in the Arab world. “If Saddam is defeated and driven from power, his call to radical Arab nationalism also loses face among the Arabs in the street,” said a senior Arab diplomat in Washington. “But if he survives as any kind of hero, his attacks on leaders like King Fahd and President Mubarak will grow more vicious and more destabilizing.” This would short-circuit U.S. plans for a regional settlement and collective security structure.
Saddam has lost much of his capacity to “project” military power, especially through chemical and nuclear weapons. The destruction of Iraq’s infrastructure will take years and billions of dollars to repair - and Iraq already has an estimated $75 billion foreign debt. Yet if he survives, Saddam would still control a large military establishment including at least 3,000 tanks. George Bush’s final offer of complete withdrawal within one week would have limited the Iraqis to whatever they could pack on their cars and trucks. Most of their dug-in tanks would have been left behind, along with damaged tanks and artillery. The three-week Soviet timetable, on the other hand, would have allowed the Iraqis to take much of their material with them. The Republican Guards, considered the backbone of Saddam’s rule, are already positioned outside Kuwait’s borders. They would have emerged damaged, but intact. So would the cream of his Air Force, now harbored in Iran - presuming he could get the planes back.
The United States would not be alone in finding that outcome unacceptable. Saudi Arabia would still have a superior enemy on its border. Israel would certainly object. Says Eliahu Ben-Elissar, head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee: “With Saddam the entire region faces total instability. You can’t change a Hitler.” Jerusalem would be sorely tempted to deliver the coup de grace to Iraq itself. And that would vastly complicate postwar regional rebuilding efforts by the United States, despite indications from coalition Arab governments that they could understand such an attack. “It’s hard to imagine any Arab government being able to sit down at an arms-control negotiating table with the Israelis the morning after the Israelis have launched airstrikes against Iraqi nuclear stockpiles, and sell that to the Arab masses at home,” says one Bush administration official.
Still, there is no guarantee he will be toppled or killed in the ground war, even if he loses. Bush has refused to authorize an assassination attempt, though there have been U.S. efforts to “decapitate” the Iraqi leadership through air raids on Baghdad bunkers. American warplanes have missed him so far, senior administration officials tell NEWSWEEK, partly because the National Security Agency has been unable to track Saddam’s movements through electronic intercepts. Saddam has been sending many of his messages by cable, which the NSA can’t tap. And when Saddam sends messages by radio he does it with Soviet-supplied codes the allies can’t break in time to find him.
The allies are left to hope that the sheer destruction of the country’s civilian and military infrastructure will prompt someone inside Iraq to do the job. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and Iran are all aiding elements of Iraq’s scattered internal opposition in hopes of putting together a coherent alternative to Saddam, but the dictator long ago eliminated or exiled Iraqis with independent popular standing. Nor do exiled opposition leaders inspire confidence among the allies. “We don ’t know which ones would attract public support in the aftermath” of Saddam’s departure from power, said one U.S. intelligence official. Most likely, one would have to be installed by the allies, the official said. But the Arab world would instantly perceive such a figure as an American puppet.
Iraqis have long been silenced by his use of informers and his carefully nurtured reputation for brutality and torture. But there are signs of change. Ruling Baath Party officials were reported killed in a recent riot when they tried to halt an anti-government demonstration. In addition to reporting executions of division commanders in Kuwait, U.S. intelligence sources say that Saddam has apparently lost confidence in the regular Army units guarding him in Baghdad. According to Sen. Frank Murkowski, a leader of the Senate Intelligence Committee, the dictator tried to recall units of his elite Republican Guard when the bombing began on Jan. 16. But the air campaign kept the Guard pinned down in southern Iraq. “Saddam’s vulnerability may have increased as a result of the inability of the Republican Guard to. protect him,” said Murkowski. In fact, the Guard itself may be suspect. Two weeks ago Iraqi emigres were telling the CIA some of the Guard officers say the only way to stop the relentless bombing is to assassinate Saddam.
For now, an internal mutiny in Iraq remains a remote possibility. Saddam Hussein has faced numerous attempted coups or assassinations since assuming power, at least five during the Iran-Iraq War alone. He employs doubles to throw observers off-track and surprises visitors with unusual meeting places. Says Desert Storm commander Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf “We’ve had many reports in the last six months of attempts on his life. In every case these people have suffered for trying to do that.” And even if Saddam goes, the perennial dream of Pan-Arab unity he has manipulated will not necessarily disappear with him.
OPINION WATCH FACE OR DISGRACE? Is it worth letting Saddam Hussein save some face to avoid a bloody ground war? Or is it worth a ground war to humiliate Saddam and reduce his ability to cause trouble in the future?
62% Humiliate him 30% Save face
From the NEWSWEEK Poll of Feb. 22, 1991
WEARING DOWN THE ENEMY Before starting the ground campaign, the allies said the Iraqi military was on the “verge of collapse.” The preassault damage assessment:
Close to 1,700 destroyed, out of a total of 4,280. Many thought to be top Soviet T-72s used by the Republican Guard.
About 925 knocked out, from a total of 2,870.
More than 1,485 of Iraq’s big guns, out of 3,110, destroyed.
At least 239 aircraft out of 650-700 out of action: 42 shot down, 137 hiding in Iran, 60 damaged or wrecked on the ground.
The allies had more than 2,800 Iraqi troops in custody.
