Clinton will try to keep the refugees away without appearing to shut the door on them. He’ll announce (and formalize by executive order later this month) a plan to expand the number of sites in Haiti for processing asylum applications. But he can’t change the standard for awarding asylum-that an individual has a “well-founded fear of persecution” if repatriated. Right now, the government regards most Haitians-unlike Cubans-only as refugees from the hemisphere’s worst poverty. The United States also dispatched a Marine Corps general to tell Haiti’s ruling junta that if it recognized exiled president Jean-Bertand Aristide and restored democracy, the United States would resume nonlethal military aid. And last week the Bush and Clinton administrations issued an unusual joint declaration affirming “the goal of restoring democracy to Haiti.” Aristide told NEWSWEEK he welcomed the gesture but said, “Words will not be enough to keep the Haitian people in the country.”
Clinton inherits a string of failed attempts to broker a deal in Haiti. A porous trade embargo hurts the poor but still keeps the military in oil. Clinton aides are tempted to lift the embargo, easing the pain they believe drives Haitians to flee. But until there’s political progress-most likely with the United Nations in the lead-it is unlikely. The other question mark is Aristide. U.S. officials complain about his intransigence. In the NEWSWEEK interview, Aristide retreated from a sticking point in past talks: punishment for the coup leaders. He now says he would consider exiling them. In any event, the legitimacy of Aristide’s electoral victory gives Clinton little choice but to include him in a solution. It may be the only way Clinton can ensure that his foreign policy isn’t washed away by a wave of refugees.
